FXUS63 KTOP 160936
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
336 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
Gradually improving conditions after a round of light snow today
over east central KS exits the area.
Currently, satellite imagery is showing the upper vort lobe slowly
making its way east over the spine of the central Rockies. Ahead of
this, a batch of light to moderate snow extends from portions of
east central KS to southwestern KS. Returns on radar remain light
and observing stations only reporting mainly light snow with one
heavier band over central KS which has been waning over the past
hour or so. Surface boundaries were noted to be well to the
southeast of the area, with plenty of cold air in place through the
column to support snow in the forecast with mid level returns
originating within the DGZ.
Short-term hi-res CAMs have continued to trend light precipitation
into mainly portions of east central Kansas this morning into this
afternoon. All models continue to weaken any light snow as it lifts
much further north than the I-35 and I-335 corridors. Thus, have
canceled the northern most extent of the advisory and have
maintained the advisory generally over any of the counties that
would include at least portions of east central KS. With DCVA ahead
of the upper trough as it advances east, there is suggestion of
enough lift with a good overall bullseye of q-vector convergence
which suggests good vertical motion at least through the mid levels
of the atmosphere passing overhead this afternoon. Lift and dry air
working in tandem may be an issue at times, which will act to weaken
light snow as it moves into the area. But one notable batch this
morning should result in light snow and then another one around
midday with the main trough should add more to the overall totals.
All told from this new additional snow should be on the order of 1-2
inches with perhaps a few 3 inch reports mixed in. Thermo profiles
keep the DGZ saturated when there is enough lift to support
precipitation, so thinking that all snow should be the end result
for the rest of this event.
After this afternoon into the evening, just clouds linger into the
evening and early overnight. With the cloud cover today, and light
winds over the snowpack, have kept temps only in the middle 20s.
Good radiational cooling should take place after clouds clear the
area with lows falling into the upper teens. Uncertain how much
decoupling takes place so have not introduced fog at this time, but
won`t rule it out either as fresh snow lingers on the ground.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CST Mon Dec 16 2019
The week leading up to Christmas should remain dry and void of any
significant weather systems traversing the area. Overall flow
pattern exhibits a longer wave ridge building into the area with
heights rising and H85 temps pushing 10C by the end of the week.
With eventual snow melting, temps should be allowed to return to the
40s by the end of the week and then rise nicely into the 50s for the
weekend even with a dry cold frontal passage on Friday.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Sun Dec 15 2019
MVFR ceilings should be the rule for much of the first portions of
this forecast, though brief conditions both above and below these
levels could continue. Precipitation chances remain spotty and not
impressive and will continue with VCSH at TOP and FOE at this
point. VFR conditions return behind this last system by 0Z.
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM CST this evening for KSZ026-
NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion