592
FXUS63 KTOP 160958
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
458 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Surface ridging has been building into the area overnight in between
a shortwave trough moving off to our east in the Great Lakes region
and the next trough currently off the Pacific Coast. Low-level
stratus in eastern NE has struggled to move into northeast KS and
may clip far northern parts of the CWA this morning, but will likely
have a hard time getting much further south due to the drier air in
place over east central KS. High pressure will remain dominant today
and push the clouds east, which should keep winds light and variable
with mostly sunny skies. Far northeast KS may stay a few degrees
cooler with any lingering cloud cover, but generally we can expect
to see highs in the mid to upper 50s. Radiational cooling tonight
will allow for temperatures to fall back to around 40 degrees
overnight.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 313 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

By Thursday, winds turn more southerly under the ridge, which will
help usher in warmer air and bring afternoon temperatures up to the
low 70s. The 500mb trough currently off the Pacific Coast will move
across the western CONUS and set the stage for our next chance of
showers with perhaps a few rumbles of thunder Friday night into
early Saturday. This along with a stronger system impacting the area
on Sunday will be the two main features to focus on in the long
term. After the first system moves east Saturday morning, another
trough will move across the western US with lee cyclogenesis
bringing a stronger cold front across the area Sunday afternoon.
Models suggest enough instability at this time that we could see
thunderstorms develop along the front with gusty winds during and
after its passage. Any finer details are uncertain this far out, but
this system will bear watching over the coming days. High surface
pressure looks to return behind the system for calm weather with
seasonal temps to start the next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 451 AM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

Low-level stratus will bring MVFR cigs to TOP/FOE this morning
with more scattered coverage at MHK. Clouds should scatter out mid
to late morning with winds staying light and northwesterly the
rest of the day, with no other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Drake/Picha
LONG TERM...Drake/Picha
AVIATION...Drake/Picha

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion