000
FXUS63 KTOP 182314
AFDTOP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Topeka KS
614 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

This afternoon the cold front was tracking southeastward across the
CWA, with models suggesting this front should be progressive enough
to keep conditions predominantly dry late this afternoon into this
evening. Cannot entirely rule out an isolated storm developing as
this front exits the area, however confidence in this is low due to
trends with the short-range models, so only have some slight chance
PoPs clipping far east central KS into this evening.

Tonight into Monday, surface high pressure will track southward into
the area with a mid-level ridge building northward over the Central
Plains. Some models suggest that some shallow low-level stratus may
develop overnight into Monday morning, which may help to keep low
temperatures in the mid/upper 60s to low 70s.  However, there are
model discrepancies with regards to the depth of this potential
stratus layer and, thus, how quickly it will scatter out through the
day.  At this time, any stratus cloud cover should start scattering
out by late morning/early afternoon, and then anticipate conditions
to heat up quickly in the afternoon as soundings suggest mixing up
to around 850mb. With highs quickly soaring into the low/mid 90s
along and south of I-70 (where cloud cover will clear out first) and
with dewpoints expected to rise into the mid and possibly upper 70s,
anticipate heat index values surging into the 105 to 110 degree
range.  As a result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for those
locations for Monday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 258 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

Hot and humid conditions will continue into Tuesday as the mid-level
ridge builds into the area and southerly surface winds support
decent warm, moist-air advection through the day.  With 25C to 28C
850mb temperatures, anticipate highs reaching into the mid/upper
90s. These hot temperatures combined with dewpoints in the mid 70s
and possibly even upper 70s will cause heat index values to soar
into the 105 to 110 degree range across the entire CWA.  As a
result, a Heat Advisory has been issued for Tuesday afternoon.

We will see a break from the heat by the middle of the week as the
mid-level ridge starts to break down from a mid-level trough diving
southward from Canada into the Great Lakes region.  As a result, the
combination of a few embedded shortwaves developing within the mid-
level flow and a surface cold front tracking southeastward into the
CWA will likely contribute to a complex of storms developing Tuesday
night over NE and progressing southward into the area late
evening/overnight and into Wednesday morning. Conditions may be
favorable for some strong to severe thunderstorms, so will need to
continue to monitor this potential in the upcoming days. With
northwesterly flow setting up aloft due to the trough over the Great
Lakes, models show embedded waves continuing to develop within this
pattern and track over the area, resulting is scattered chances for
showers and storms persisting through much of the latter half of the
week.  Increased cloud cover from these precipitation chances will
aid in keeping temperatures cooler with highs staying the 80s and
lows in the 60s.  There is more uncertainty with precipitation
chances into next weekend due to model variability with the tracking
of additional embedded shortwaves, so only have some slight chance
PoPs with temperatures warming to near 90 degrees by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Aug 18 2019

May see some scattered low stratus and/or fog development early
Monday morning, so have begun to hint at at least MVFR cigs around
12z at all TAF sites. Otherwise, light winds and no precipitation
expected throughout the TAF period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Tuesday for KSZ008>012-
020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059.

Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Monday for KSZ026-034>040-
054>056-058-059.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hennecke
LONG TERM...Hennecke
AVIATION...Laflin

NWS TOP Office Area Forecast Discussion